The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies: Innovation, Coolness, and Collective Delusion

The words "innovation" and "emerging technology" carry an almost irresistible allure. They evoke visions of a bright future filled with solutions that will transform society and revolutionize our lives. But when does the pursuit of novelty cross the line into pure hype? To answer this question, we will analyze five of the most talked-about emerging technologies of the last five years: Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), NFTs, voice devices like Alexa, and the Metaverse. Let’s explore how they emerged, captured the collective imagination, rode waves of expectation, and, in many cases, fell into disuse or "market delusion" cycles.

VR and AR: The Future That Never Arrives

Emergence and Promises

Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are not new concepts. VR dates back to the 1960s with experiments like Morton Heilig’s "Sensorama," a rudimentary device that promised sensory immersion by integrating 3D images, sound, and tactile vibrations. Meanwhile, AR began gaining relevance in the 1990s with ARToolkit, which allowed virtual images to be projected onto the physical world in real-time.

Both technologies were accompanied by ambitious promises. VR suggested a radical transformation, enabling the creation of entirely new worlds for gaming, education, and even psychological therapy. AR was seen as the ultimate tool for enhancing interaction with the physical environment, from augmented reality instructions to commerce and entertainment.

Media Wave

The entry of giants like Oculus, Magic Leap, and HTC Vive in the 2010s brought a new wave of optimism. The launch of the Oculus Rift in 2016 marked a turning point, followed by HTC Vive, which promised even more immersion through precise motion sensors. In AR, the global phenomenon Pokémon GO in 2016 showcased the technology’s potential for mass entertainment, generating billions in revenue.

However, marketing campaigns and technical demonstrations often exaggerated the practical capabilities of the technology. Promotional videos promised fluid, limitless interactions, while real-world hardware suffered from issues like discomfort, low resolution, and the need for high-performance computers.

VR Devices: Costs and Benefits

Today’s VR market is led by devices like Oculus Quest 3, PS VR 2, Apple Vision Pro, and Meta Ray-Ban glasses, each with a specific focus:

• Oculus Quest 3: Considered one of the most accessible devices, it combines portability with a competitive price (~$500). However, its graphics power is limited compared to PC-connected devices.

• PS VR 2: Aimed at the gaming audience, it integrates with the PlayStation ecosystem. Its price (~$550) is justified by its graphic quality but depends on a PS5 to function.

• Apple Vision Pro: A milestone in hybrid VR and AR technology, but at an exorbitant price ($3,500), targeting professionals and businesses. It has immense potential but is inaccessible to ordinary consumers.

• Meta Ray-Ban Stories: Focused on lightweight AR and social interaction, but limited in functionality and more akin to smart accessories than full-fledged VR/AR.

  
  

While these devices show clear advancements in quality and usability, cost barriers and the need for complementary hardware like PCs or consoles limit their popularity.

Gaming Applications and Potential

VR has revolutionized how gamers interact with digital worlds, enabling previously unattainable immersion on conventional platforms. Titles like Beat Saber and Half-Life: Alyx demonstrate how VR can create unique experiences by fully immersing players in 3D, interactive environments. AR, on the other hand, shined in games like Pokémon GO, merging virtual and physical worlds for millions of players. Both technologies have the potential to elevate storytelling and exploration in games, especially in RPGs and open-world settings.

Premature Death, High Costs, and Real-World Use

While VR has found solid niches in areas like industrial training, product design, medical rehabilitation, and especially gaming, mass adoption remains below expectations. AR, limited to social media filters and low-impact apps, remains underutilized. The high cost of entry and the lack of truly innovative content continue to hinder widespread adoption.

NFTs: Digital Art or Pure Hype?

Emergence

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) emerged as a blockchain application to create a market for unique digital assets. In 2021, Beeple’s NFT “Everydays: The First 5000 Days” sold for $69 million, marking a peak in euphoria around the technology. Initially, NFTs were seen as a revolutionary way to monetize digital art and guarantee authenticity in a medium where everything can be infinitely copied.

Media Wave

The NFT craze sparked a rush from both independent artists and major brands like Adidas and Nike, which launched limited-edition digital sneakers. Meanwhile, celebrities like Grimes and Snoop Dogg created their own NFTs, attracting global media attention. Platforms like OpenSea and Rarible facilitated the buying and selling of these assets, promising to democratize access to the art and collectibles market.

Gaming Applications and Potential

NFTs introduced the idea of digital ownership in games, allowing collectibles and skins to be owned, traded, and sold outside the game environment. Projects like Axie Infinity proved that players could monetize their gameplay time through digital assets. Traditional games like CS:GO already had robust markets for virtual items, but NFTs promise interoperability—using the same item across different games or platforms—expanding the gaming ecosystem and creating new digital economies.

Downfall and Criticism

Despite early success, the NFT market suffered a dramatic devaluation. By 2022, transaction volumes had fallen by about 90% compared to the previous year.

Issues like plagiarism, fraud, and market saturation began driving investors away.

Additionally, critics pointed to the environmental impact of blockchain and the market’s superficiality, which often offered little substance beyond the hype. The promise of “democratization” also proved illusory, with most profits concentrated in a few platforms and individuals.

Voice Devices: Alexa and Its Siblings

Emergence and Promises

Since the launch of Amazon Echo in 2014, voice devices like Alexa, Google Assistant, and Siri have become central to the vision of a "smart home" future. These assistants promised to transform how we interact with devices by automating tasks like online shopping, appliance control, and access to basic information.

Media Wave

Companies like Amazon and Google invested heavily in marketing to associate their devices with convenience and modernity. Commercials depicted ideal scenarios of homes where every function was controlled by voice, creating an aspirational image that motivated millions of purchases worldwide.

Gaming Applications and Potential

Voice devices hold immense potential in gaming, particularly for interactive and narrative experiences. Imagine an RPG where players interact directly with characters through voice commands, creating dynamic, immersive dialogues.

Voice-based interactive audiobooks and RPG books are also a promising area, allowing players to make decisions that alter the story’s course. This format leverages the strengths of voice devices, blending immersive narration with meaningful choices. It also offers accessibility for blind or visually impaired individuals, enabling them to participate in gamified journeys through voice commands.

The Metaverse: A Parallel Reality or Just a Buzzword?

The Emergence

The term "Metaverse" was coined by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel Snow Crash, where he described a shared digital universe where people could interact through avatars. In reality, the idea of connected virtual worlds began manifesting in video games. In the 2000s, platforms like Second Life brought the concept to the mainstream, allowing users to create businesses and interact socially in a virtual environment.

With renewed interest recently fueled by Meta (formerly Facebook) and other companies, the Metaverse was envisioned as a universal environment for social interaction, entertainment, education, and remote work. It promises to revolutionize how we connect and consume content, but so far, many projects have struggled to meet these expectations.

Comparison with Gamer Culture

The concept of a "persistent virtual world" has been familiar to gamers for decades. Games like Tibia, World of Warcraft (WoW), and Runescape created massive online worlds (MMOs) where players could interact, collaborate, and compete. These environments already demonstrated the possibilities of the Metaverse: robust internal economies, complex social systems, and an engaged user base.

Additionally, offline RPGs like Neverwinter Nights and The Elder Scrolls explored elements of open-world building and narrative interactivity, creating rich, detailed environments that encouraged exploration and emotional engagement.

Virtual Markets in Games

One fascinating aspect of these worlds is the digital economy. Many online games have created internal currency and trading systems that transcend the game's environment. In World of Warcraft, for example, players trade virtual gold for real money on external platforms. CS:GO popularized the skin market, where cosmetic items are bought and sold for amounts that sometimes exceed thousands of dollars.

Even in older games like Tibia, the buying and selling of accounts, rare items, and characters have generated robust parallel economies, with transactions often occurring outside the games' official networks. Platforms like Mercado Livre and specific forums have been used to facilitate these trades, often for substantial sums.

The Metaverse vs. the Gaming Market

What differentiates the Metaverse from the experiences offered by games is its attempt to expand the concept beyond entertainment. However, it faces challenges that games have already solved. For example, virtual economy systems in games are designed to be self-regulating and sustainable, while many Metaverse initiatives rely on volatile cryptocurrencies and immature systems.

Additionally, the gaming market’s user base is already willing to invest time and money in digital experiences, whereas the Metaverse struggles to convince a broader audience of its relevance. Gamer culture is also more familiar with online communities and digital economies, making this market a solid foundation for financial and technological innovation.

Relationship with Games and Potential

The Metaverse finds its inspiration in MMORPGs, where players already inhabit persistent virtual worlds, collaborate socially, and build robust economies. Games like World of Warcraft and Tibia demonstrate how interactions and trades in digital environments can expand into real-world economies. However, the Metaverse aims to go further by integrating work, education, and entertainment into a single ecosystem. With the potential to create entire markets within and beyond games, the Metaverse could transform how we interact with the digital world—if it can overcome technical and large-scale adoption challenges.

While the Metaverse is often described as the next big digital revolution, it is the gaming market that has shown the true potential of virtual worlds. With proven robust economies, such as skin transactions in CS:GO and account sales in Tibia, games have already demonstrated how to effectively monetize digital experiences.

Moreover, gamer culture is intrinsically connected to these ideas, while the Metaverse attempts to introduce concepts that are still foreign to many. If the Metaverse wants to become more than just a buzzword, it will have to learn from games: create engaging systems, functional economies, and dedicated communities. Otherwise, the gaming market will remain the best financial and technological option for exploring the potential of virtual worlds.

Conclusion

Emerging technologies like VR, AR, NFTs, voice devices, and the Metaverse have moments of brilliance but face challenges aligning ambitious promises with practical outcomes. To transcend the hype, these innovations need to overcome practical barriers and deliver real, accessible, and tangible value to the general public. Without this, they will continue to be perceived as "cool curiosities" rather than significant revolutions.

On the other hand, the gaming market already demonstrates how to explore the potential of virtual worlds effectively. Robust economies, such as skin transactions in CS:GO and account sales in Tibia, are clear examples of how to monetize digital experiences. Additionally, gamer culture, naturally connected to concepts like engagement and dedicated communities, serves as the ideal model for emerging technologies like the Metaverse to achieve practical relevance and social impact.

When it comes to voice devices, the gaming market also offers promising solutions, such as interactive audiobooks, RPG books, and gamified journeys with decision-making and branching stories. These formats not only expand the target audience but also create new inclusive experiences, making them especially attractive options for people who are blind or have low vision.

For the Metaverse and other innovations to succeed, it will be essential to learn from games: create engaging systems, functional economies, and passionate communities. The gaming market remains the most advanced and viable example of what virtual worlds can offer, serving as inspiration to shape the future of these emerging technologies.

Note: Why Was Artificial Intelligence Excluded from This Article?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was not included in this article because its position in the technological landscape is quite distinct from the technologies analyzed.

Unlike VR, AR, NFTs, voice devices, and the Metaverse, AI is not marked by a cycle of "collective delusion." On the contrary, it is already consolidated and democratized, with applications in infinite areas, from healthcare and education to entertainment and business. Unlike other emerging technologies, AI does not require high investments from the end user to fulfill its intended functions, making it widely accessible and functional. Rather than being a distant promise, AI is already a present reality, with continuous evolution potential that benefits both individuals and organizations. Its inclusion in an article about emerging technologies still struggling to establish themselves would, therefore, be inappropriate.